Are You Trading Fear or Fact?
Stockscores Foundation for the week ending September 5, 2023
In this week's issue:
In This Week’s Issue:
- Market Outlook – Upward Momentum but Caution Warranted
- This Week’s Market Minutes video – Is the Stock Market Crash Over?
- Trader Training – Are You Trading Fear or Fact?
- Strategy of the Week – Abnormal Gainers
Market Outlook – Upward Momentum but Caution Warranted
After a sell off through most of August, the market reversed direction to end the month and the longer term upward momentum resumed. This is good for the buyers but high interest rates and the historic weakness in September warrant caution. I think it is best to focus on strong sectors like Energy, Cannabis and Tech and stocks showing Alpha characteristics (trading with abnormal volume and strong price gains).
This Week’s Market Minutes video – Is the Stock Market Crash Over?
After a very weak start to August, stocks moved higher last week. Does this mean the threat of a stock market crash is over? In this week’s video, I provide my analysis and show you what to watch for in stocks, commodities, and currencies. Then, my trade of the week on ICCT.
Click here to watch this week’s video
Trader Education – Are You Trading Fear or Fact?
Speaking from experience, I have found that most mistakes in trading are the result of succumbing to fear. When I say mistakes, I do not mean losses since losing money on trades is part of trading. Instead, I mean those bad trades that we all take which do not fit in to our trading strategy and plan.
The fear-based decisions that cause us to deviate from our trading rules can be broken down in to two types.
First, the trading decisions that we make because of our fear of losing money. These are usually exit trades; we sell too early for fear that our winner will turn in to a loser. Perhaps we fail to take a trade that fits our criteria because our "common sense" tells us there is something wrong with the trade and that it can't succeed. Maybe we enter a trade later than we should because we want to see the market prove our trading idea correct, only to end up getting in once much of the run has happened.
The second fear-based trading mistakes we make are those that are the result of our fear of missing out. These tend to be on the entry; we take trades that don't quite fit our rules because we focus on what might be, the profits that could happen. It may be that we listen to an "expert" in the media or follow the actions of the crowd and do what the headlines are telling us to do.
Have you ever succumbed to either of these fear-based trading mistakes?
If you are a normal human being, I think it is highly unlikely that you have not. Since they happen to all of us, we need to figure out a solution. Fortunately, the solution is quite simple.
Rather than focus on fear, focus on fact. Make trades based on what is happening, not what you think could happen.
Many have described fear as "future events appearing real". We don't walk down a dark alley at night because we might get mugged. We don't swim in the ocean because we might get attacked by a shark. We don't fly on a plane because it might crash.
When we focus on what might happen, what our fear tells us to do, we typically ignore probability. The probability of getting attacked by a shark is extremely low. Last year, you had a greater chance of dying taking a selfie photograph than by being attacked by a shark. If we focus on fact, we get better results.
This does not mean you should ignore fear. It is there to protect us and, when probability is on the side of the decision, it is best to listen to fear. I stopped flying small airplanes because the statistics showed that it was a dangerous thing to do. I still trade stocks because I have strategies that put the statistics in my favor.
When you trade, take your focus off of your emotion and look at the facts. Develop a trading strategy that puts probability for profit in your favor. Have a process in place to assess the facts and take the trades that meet your requirements. Overcome fear in favor of fact.
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This week, I ran a Market Scan for stocks that were up at least 3% on Tuesday with abnormal price volume and at least 1001 trades, on the North American markets. I inspected the 65 charts that the scan revealed in search of those that were breaking out from predictive chart patterns. Here are two that I like.
LNZA is breaking out from a Bullish Pennant pattern with abnormal volume. Good potential as a Position trade with support at $6.
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FNGR is showing increasing volume as the stock breaks a pullback after strong gains in the early summer. Good potential to continue the long term upward trendline provided support at $4 holds up.
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