Buy When Pessimism Turns to Optimism
Stockscores Foundation for the week ending December 16, 2019
In this week's issue:
In This Week’s Issue:
- Stockscores Market Minutes Video – My Day Trading Process
- Stockscores Trader Training – Buy When Pessimism Turns to Optimism
- Stockscores Feature Strategy – Abnormal Breaks
Stockscores Market Minutes – My Day Trading Process
This week, I take you through the process I use to identify and make day trades and then how I track their performance. Of course, we have the regular weekly market analysis, a Market Scan in search of opportunities and the day trade of the week on AMD.
Click here to watch this week’s Market Minutes
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Commentary of the Week – Buy When Pessimism Turns to Optimism
Simple approaches to any practice usually work the best. Finding the simple solution is not always easy, doing so can take the most experience. This is true in trading too and one simple concept to keep in mind when trading stocks is that there is strength in weakness (and weakness in strength).
What do you do when you are optimistic about a stock? Assuming you invest in stocks at all, you probably buy. When you are pessimistic, there is a good chance you sell.
Suppose there are 100 people who can trade the stock market and approach the market in this rational way.
If 30 of them are optimistic about the market and 70 are pessimistic then there are 30 potential buyers and 70 likely sellers. The sellers are stronger and will likely push the market lower.
What happens when a pessimist sells or an optimist buys? The seller no longer has shares to sell and becomes a person who is more likely to buy in the future. The buyer now has shares and is a more likely seller in the future.
If most people in the market are optimistic, they are also likely owners of the market and less likely to buy in the future. The more optimistic the market, the more likely people will sell in the future.
If most people in the market are pessimistic, they have likely already sold and are therefore likely to be future buyers as prices fall.
Market strength is driven by optimism that is likely to turn to pessimism once prices get high enough. Market weakness is driven by pessimism that will eventually turn to optimism once prices get low enough.
That is why weakness brings strength, and strength brings weakness.
Keep this in mind when analyzing a stock. It is why I don't like to chase stocks that have been going up for a while. I prefer to buy just when stocks start to go up. I also like to sell just when upward trends are broken rather than sell after a stock has been going down for a while.
You can apply this thinking with a very simple chart analysis method. Use trendlines to define who is in control of the market and then look for a change of control. A downward trend means the sellers are in control so watch for a break of the downward trend to indicate the buyers are going to come in off of the sidelines and turn the market around.
There is strength in weakness as long as you get the timing right.
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The Abnormal Breaks Market Scan searches for stocks make strong price gains with a move through 15 day resistance. I then inspect the charts to see if the pattern is a predictive one. I look at the 3 year weekly chart first and, if that is favorable, I check the 1 year daily chart.
T.SNC broke its long term downward trend line 7 weeks ago and then pulled back. It is now breaking its pullback which is a good sign that momentum is starting to turn positive. Support at $22.
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JASN is breaking up from a rising bottom, breaking its downward trend line. Volume is strong indicating investors are excited about the company. Support at $0.18.
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WIFI broke its downward trend in early November and has been building a sideways trading pattern since. The lows of that pattern are higher than the lows of early November, indicating that investors are starting to be optimistic about the company. Support is at $10.95.
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