Keep the Money Out of It
Stockscores Foundation for the week ending June 17, 2019
In this week's issue:
In This Week’s Issue:
- Stockscores’ Market Minutes Video – Trade Fast, Invest Slow
- Stockscores Trader Training – Keep the Money Out of It
- Stock Features of the Week – Stockscores Simple Weekly
Stockscores Market Minutes – Trade Fast, Invest Slow
There are two groups of market participants that move a lot of capital and must not be ignored. How traders and investors profit from their activities is very different but it comes down to trading fast or investing slow.
This week, I explain this concept and then provide my weekly stock market analysis, scan the market for opportunities and look at the trade of the week on OTLK.
Click here to watch this week's Market Minutes video
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Commentary of the Week –
“Anything worth doing is worth doing for money” – Gordon Gecko, Wall Street
It is generally accepted that money is a motivator; if you link pay to performance, performance will improve. For that reason, many people's salaries vary with their performance. This is most prevalent on Wall Street where bankers and traders receive most of their compensation in the form of incentive-based pay.
In his book, "Drive", Dan Pink considers whether pay for performance really works. Does dangling a carrot and threatening with a stick cause people to deliver better results? The research finds that this is not always the case.
For very mechanical tasks, incentive-based pay does work. A brick layer who is paid by the brick will work more effectively than one who is paid by the hour. However, for tasks that require analytical thinking, performance is actually worse when it is linked to pay.
Pink cites research involving the solving of puzzles. The person who was told she would receive a financial reward if she solved the puzzle in the shortest time performed worse than a person who had no potential for financial reward if the puzzle was solved quickly. The person who was solving the puzzle for the sake of solving the puzzle did it quickest.
I have been teaching people how to trade the stock market for twenty years, teaching a lot of people from many different backgrounds. One constant that I have seen is those who perform the best as traders are those who don't care about the money. They trade with a set of rules and the discipline to follow the rules, making the money irrelevant.
The market is a puzzle that we want to solve. Why does a focus on money make us ineffective traders, or puzzle solvers?
I am not a behavioral scientist and I have not done the kind of research necessary to really answer that question. However, I do have an opinion based on what I have learned from trading.
Money causes us to focus on something that is irrelevant to the problem. In doing so, it complicates the puzzle, making it more difficult to solve. Focusing on money also creates anxiety, causing the fight or flight response to play a role in our decision making.
If we aspire to make money from the market, we should change our focus to find trading opportunities with a positive expected value. Money will be the determinant of success, but it will not be something that is part of the problem to be solved.
Suppose you buy a stock and it is showing you a profit of $1000. It is near to the end of the month and you need $1000 to pay bills. There is a good chance you will sell the stock because of your need, regardless of what your analysis would tell you about the stock's potential to move higher.
Money causes a greater problem to our trading when it comes to taking losses. A stock may remain a good hold despite the fact it is showing as a loss. The size of the loss often causes traders to exit the trade simply because the money, and the potential loss of more, causes them too much concern.
Not only can money bring an irrelevant condition in to our problem-solving equation, it also tends to bring emotion which hurts our ability to make good decisions. Most people function poorly under stress and the fear of losing money brings stress. When we focus on the money, we trade with emotion and that means we make bad trades.
Every trader must overcome their emotional attachment to money. Trades must be based solely on the merit of the trade. Our pursuit must be on doing the right trade, doing good analysis. If we trade to make money, we will lose it! Our chances for success improve when we simply trade to solve the market's puzzle.
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This week, I ran the Stockscores Simple Weekly Market Scan in search of good long-term trading opportunities. For this scan, I view the 3-year weekly charts when determining of the stock has good potential. Here are some that I like:
PIRS broke its downward trend a few weeks ago and has been stabilizing since, building optimism that I think can lead to further gains. Support at $3.95.
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KIM has been building an ascending triangle pattern for about a year and is now moving up through resistance. Support at $17.
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RDUS is showing what I call a Bottom Fishing pattern. Break up from a rising bottom after breaking its long-term downward trend. Support at $20.75.
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